Gary Profile

Posted on February 8, 2012 by Emily Engel

Background on Gary, Indiana

Gary is located 25 miles south of Chicago, Illinois. It borders Lake Michigan, the water source for the steel mills that once dominated the area. The city, named after U.S. Steel founder, Elbert Gary, has tracked the successes and failures of the steel industry over time. Before the 1960s, Gary was a prosperous city that relied heavily on the steel industry. Since then, like many cities that relied on one manufacturing industry, Gary has experienced a dramatic decline along with the city’s main industry, steel.

Change in Manufacturing & Need for Workforce Development

As depicted below, Gary’s manufacturing employment fell from almost 50% in 1970 to 13.5% in 2005-09. With much of the steel industry moving overseas in the early 1970s, Gary’s employment in the sector went from about 30,000 people in the boom years to approximately 8,000 people today. With the dramatic loss of job, work force development should have been a high priority. However, with shrinking tax revenue and little assistance from the state of Indiana, the city’s leadership had to make difficult choices, and did not put a great emphasis on work force retraining. Gary also experienced a severe “brain drain” during this period as senior management and highly skilled workers moved out of the city to find work elsewhere. The exodus of educated workers led to the common expression: “Last one out of Gary, please turn out the lights.”

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Population Change

As shown in the table below, the population of Gary has continuously declined since 1970. Significantly, Gary’s image became one of deteriorating housing, corruption, and crime. At one point, the city was known as the “murder capital of the world.” The soaring crime problem also contributed to the majority of the middle class leaving the city, causing additional private sector deterioration and further diminishing tax revenues and public resources.

Between 1970 and 2005-09, the percentage of Whites in Gary declined from 46.7% to 14.9%, while the Black population grew from 52.8% to 80.0%.Click to Enlarge

Additionally, as you can see below, the median family income for Gary in the 1970’s was consistent with Indiana and the United States. However, since that time the median family income in Gary has lagged both the state and the United States.

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Looking to the Future

As the city has declined economically, so has all the relationship between government and private industry and opportunities for public/private partnerships, with a few notable exceptions. The local Majestic Star Casino provides a number of college scholarships. The utility NIPSCO (Northern Indiana Public Service Co.), U.S. Steel, and Methodist Hospital provide some grants, educational and youth mentoring services. The city is benefiting from the Northwest Indiana Regional Development Authority project to revitalize the lakefront (the entire Indiana Lake Michigan lakeshore) and commercial properties including the airport. Finally the newly-elected, reform-minded mayor, Karen Freeman-Wilson, aims to put Gary on the road to prosperity. While there is a new sense of hope, the city has many longstanding challenges.

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Changing Banking Infrastructure: Access to Credit by Detroit’s Small Businesses

Posted on February 2, 2012 by Emily Engel

The story of distress in Detroit has been well-told from the riots of the 1960s through the near-collapse of the auto assemblers in 2008. The table below shows Detroit’s dramatic population loss since 1970, while both Michigan and the United States have had population increases almost every decade.Click to enlarge

Source: NHGIS: Minnesota Population Center. National Historical Geographic Information System: Pre-release Version 0.1. Minneapolis, MN: University of Minnesota 2004. All data from 2000 come from the 2000 census via American FactFinder.

As Detroit tries to recover, and is the subject of much attention among researchers, policymakers, community economic development organizations and many other types of organizations, two Chicago Fed senior business economists, Robin Newberger and Maude Toussaint-Comeau are studying the role of access to credit by small businesses . Toussaint-Comeau presented part of their findings at a Federal Reserve Board of Governors Conference, “Small Business and Entrepreneurship during an Economic Recovery”, in November 2011. The goal of the conference was to provide a forum for a multidisciplinary dialogue among researchers, policymakers, and practitioners that focus on small business capital access and the role these firms play in job creation. Toussaint-Comeau explained that “small business access to credit is an important component of economic recovery, allowing for sustainable small business ownership, job creation, and neighborhood vitality.”

Newberger and Toussaint-Comeau’s Detroit case study focuses on the financial infrastructure in the city and compares it with those of three surrounding counties. For purposes of the study, the “financial infrastructure” is measured by the physical presence of bank branches as well as the level of credit activities to small businesses from banks. Blacks comprise 74% of the population in the low- and moderate- income (LMI) areas of Detroit versus only 8% in the non-LMI areas. By comparison, in the three surrounding counties, the percentage of Blacks in both LMI and non-LMI areas is only 4%. The LMI areas in Detroit also have a much higher percentage of occupied housing units without vehicles (21%) than the non-LMI areas (1%); and in the three surrounding counties, the percentages are 2% and 4%, respectively. This is consistent with the idea that LMI inner city residents are less mobile, which makes proximity to financial institutions much more relevant for these particular markets.

Perhaps the most basic finding is that the number of bank branches declined in Detroit (primarily in LMI areas), even as the number of bank offices increased outside the city (see chart below). This trend remains robust even after accounting for geographic area covered and population density.Click to enlarge

Source: FDIC Summary of Deposits Data and Chicago Fed calculations

Additionally, the following two charts compare the opening and closing of branches outside of Detroit and in the city. We can see that in the three surrounding counties, the opening/closing axis ranges from 0 to 60, while in the city of Detroit the range is from 0 to 10. (The y-axis is scaled differently for the two areas).   Over this period on average more banks closed than opened in the City of Detroit. By contrast, for the three surrounding counties there were more bank openings than closings over the same period. This holds true even as you control for geographic area covered and population density. Click to enlarge

Source: FDIC Summary of Deposits Data and Chicago Fed calculationsClick to enlarge

Source: FDIC Summary of Deposits Data and Chicago Fed calculations

In recent years, there have been a lot of efforts by foundations and private entities to promote small businesses in Detroit, and access to financial services for these businesses remains an important issue for the city.

In the coming months, we will have another blog on this topic as well as a Fed publication. In the meantime, readers may use these links to view Comeau’s conference presentation and learn more about the conference.

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ICI Cities by the Numbers

Posted on January 10, 2012 by Emily Engel

Now that the interviews connected with our 10-city study are almost complete, the Community Development and Policy Studies Department (CDPS) is now focusing on the comparative data analysis aspect of the project. At a symposium on February 28, 2012, we will discuss more of the data from each city’s case study factsheets. Meanwhile, this blog looks at changes in manufacturing and population, as well as data peaks and troughs. These data and the case study factsheets were derived from either the decennial census or a census-related source. [1]

We were careful to keep variable definitions and the subpopulations on which they are based consistent over time and between sources. Even so, please bear in mind that all figures (with the exception of the 2005–09 ACS estimates) represent snapshots rather than averages over a time period. In other words, differences between figures over time may reflect the timing of the measurement with respect to the business cycle in addition to the overall secular trend. Additionally, please use the ACS estimate data with caution as these figures represent estimates over a five-year period with potentially large margins of error. The data collected for the ICI project cover a wide range of topics, including population; age; race; educational attainment; industry, employment and income; household composition; and housing.

Manufacturing
A main criterion for a city in the Seventh District to be selected for the Industrial Cities Initiative was that a substantial portion—i.e., at least 25% of the employed work force was employed in manufacturing as of 1960. Manufacturing jobs during the 1960s and early 1970s tended to be good jobs with generous benefits. Ten years later, these 10 cities were still bustling with employment in ranges well above the initial criteria, specifically, from 27.5% in Green Bay, WI, to 49.4% in Gary, IN.

This booming industry has since declined in each of the 10 cities selected and nationwide. As of the ACS estimates for 2005–09, only one of the cities, Racine, WI, has close to 25% of its work force employed in manufacturing (24.0%). Conversely, Gary, IN, had the smallest percentage of manufacturing employment at 13.5%. Below is a graphical representation of the percentage of manufacturing employment in each city and the U.S. since 1970. As we can see from the graph, the decade of the 1980s saw the largest drops in manufacturing employment. This begs the question as to whether manufacturing was displaced by other industries or whether the decline was driven by issues specific to manufacturing.

In the case of two cities: Pontiac, MI, and Gary, IN, both with large declines in manufacturing, we find that their overall population also decreased from 1970 to 2005–09. People left when the jobs left, which implies that no other industries took the place of manufacturing in these cities. However, in Joliet, IL, which also had a large decrease in manufacturing, the city’s population declined throughout the 1990s, but the city’s population has grown significantly since the turn of the century, as shown in the population table below.  Joliet is focusing on other industries and initiatives, such as the Intermodal Center, which could be one reason for its recent population growth.

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Population
The other main criterion for inclusion in our study was that the city needed to have a population of at least 50,000 in 1960. A Midwest city population that large in the 1960s typically  indicated a dynamic place with a healthy economy. Below is a table of the percentage changes in the total population since 1970. Aurora, IL, and Joliet, IL, saw a boom in their population during the last two reporting periods, while the population in Gary, IN, has decreased every year since 1960. Pontiac, MI, has either decreased or stayed consistent. In comparison, the U.S. population overall has increased every year.

Click to Enlarge

Other Interesting Data Points
An interesting breakdown of the total population is the young family/working age demographic of people aged 25–44 years old. A small percentage of people in this demographic could present a problem for a city, since it seems to indicate a lack of appeal of the area as a good place to raise a family. This could potentially hamper the area’s future growth, since this is the population segment that is at the age to reproduce and tends to generate economic activity. Waterloo, IA, had the smallest percentage of the population in this category in the 2005–09 ACS at 23.0%, while Aurora, IL, had the largest percentage of the population in this demographic at 33.2%. Waterloo, IA, also has a small percentage of the population in the young adult category of 20–24 year olds. Over half of this city’s population is under 19 or between the ages of 45 and 65.

In terms of racial diversity, Aurora, IL, had the largest Hispanic population, 39.0%, while Cedar Rapids, IA, had the smallest, 3.0%. Green Bay, WI, saw a notable increase in its Black population, from 0.1% in 1970 to 2.5% in 2005–09, though this proportion obviously remains very small. In the most recent survey Gary, IN, had the largest share of Black population at 80.0%.

Unemployment remains a major issue nationally and regionally. During the last survey, Cedar Rapids, IA, had the lowest civilian unemployment rate of the 10 cities we are examining at 5.1%, and Pontiac, MI, had the highest civilian unemployment rate in the group at 18.6%.

Looking Ahead
In the coming months, while we will continue to blog about the Industrial Cities Initiative, we also plan to address other topics being studied by CDPS. This type of research typically has multiple stages and takes a long time to complete. We hope to use this blog to bring you some interesting findings from various stages of work in progress at the Chicago Fed.

[1] Aside from a few exceptions relating to 1970, all data from between 1970 and 1990 come from the decennial census via the University of Minnesota’s National Historical Geographic Information System (NHGIS). Link provided at the end of this blog.

Data Footnote:
NHGIS: Minnesota Population Center. National Historical Geographic Information System: Pre-release Version 0.1. Minneapolis, MN: University of Minnesota 2004. All data from 2000 come from the 2000 census via American FactFinder All data from 2009 come from the American Community Survey via American FactFinder ICPSR: Some of the data (and tabulations) utilized in this (publication) were made available (in part) by the Interuniversity Consortium for Political Social Research. The data for City and County Data Book [United States] Consolidated Files, City Data 1944–1977 were originally collected by The U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Neither the collector of the original data nor the Consortium bear any responsibility for the analyses or interpretations presented here.

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Industrial Cities Initiative Symposium has a New Date

Posted on December 7, 2011 by Emily Engel

Our Industrial Cities Initiative Symposium has a new date. Previously scheduled for Tuesday, December 13, 2011, the event will now take place at the Chicago Fed on Tuesday, February 28, 2012. The event is being delayed so that all 10 of the cities: Cedar Rapids, IA, Waterloo, IA, Aurora, IL, Joliet, IL, Fort Wayne, IN, Gary, IN, Grand Rapids, MI, Pontiac, MI, Green Bay, WI, and Racine, WI—can be discussed in greater depth. The department is also working on comparative data statistics for the 10 cities that should be completed by the new symposium date.

We will continue to post blogs on these cities over the coming months. Additionally, once the comparative data analysis part of the project is done, we will post a blog discussing the data.

The Community and Development and Policy Studies (CDPS) department would appreciate your feedback on these blogs. To provide feedback, click on “leave a comment” at the bottom of each blog entry. You may also subscribe to the blog by entering your email address and clicking the “subscribe” button on the right hand side of the blog. You will then receive an email alert when we post a new blog entry.

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Cedar Rapids Profile

Posted on December 2, 2011 by Jason Keller

Where is Cedar Rapids, Iowa?

Cedar Rapids is the second largest city in Iowa with 126,326 residents (2010 estimate) and is the county seat of Linn County. Cedar Rapids is located on both banks of the Cedar River and uniquely positioned 20 miles north of Iowa City and 100 miles west of Des Moines – two economic hubs for the state.

Why was Cedar Rapids, Iowa chosen for the study?

Cedar Rapids, like many other industrial cities nationwide, has experienced a significant decline in its manufacturing employment base over the past 50 years. In 1960, 38 percent of the city’s population was employed in manufacturing; by 2009, only 18 percent of workers were employed in manufacturing. Our goal is to examine how Cedar Rapids has responded to this shift over time.

Cedar Rapids experienced a catastrophic flood in 2008 — what was the impact and how did the government respond?

On June 13, 2008, the Cedar River inundated ten square miles of Cedar Rapids, damaged 7,749 parcels of land, and caused the evacuation of 20,000 people. Of the facilities flooded, 310 were City-related, requiring an estimated $500 million in repairs. Another 486 units were other property-tax-exempt facilities, such as other government offices, schools, churches, and nonprofit facilities. Overall, workers eventually removed 41,771 tons of flood debris. Simply put, the downtown area was decimated. Thankfully, there were no flood-related deaths.

Following the flood, the City was able to attract myriad public and private funds from federal, state, and local sources. Other efforts were to establish high-quality job creation (defined as permanent positions, not temporary); increase the tax base; assist any businesses with a demonstrated financial need; build quality future growth plans for services and infrastructure; and engage seasoned developers with past success on similar recovery projects. Much progress has been made since that time, but more is left to be done. One significant remaining hurdle is that federal relief dollars in the amount of $300 million owed to the City of Cedar Rapids remained outstanding at the time of our interviews in July 2011. Local officials believe that while the flood was devastating, it actually helped to re-invigorate economic development throughout the region. 

What is a labor shed and why is it important to Cedar Rapids’ economic development?

A labor shed is defined as the area or region from which an employment center draws its commuting workers. Cedar Rapids, along with Iowa City, comprises the Technology Corridor Labor Shed, – which draws workers from nine surrounding counties. Labor shed analyses address underemployment, the availability and willingness of current and prospective employees to change jobs, current and desired occupations, wages, hours worked, and distance people are willing to commute for work. Iowa Workforce Development, a state-sponsored agency that contributes to the economic security of Iowa’s workers, businesses and communities through a comprehensive system of employment services, education and regulation of health, safety and employment laws estimated that Iowans were willing to commute an average of 21 miles one way for better employment opportunities in Cedar Rapids.

How has Cedar Rapids changed since 1960?

According to officials, even prior to the flood in 2008, the City had been utilizing tax incentives for economic development, since 1980 in fact, with the creation of the five-year program known as the Industrial Property Tax Exemption. Over the past ten years, the city has offered increasingly generous incentives in Urban Renewal Areas (there are 11 targeted districts). During that time, $31 million in economic incentives have been invested: $162 million in private investment dollars in new facilities, equipment, and technology; retention/creation of over 6,300 jobs with an annual payroll of over $160 million; and funding of over $30 million in public improvements including streets, utility extensions, and recreational facilities.

What does the current labor shed look like?

Due to targeted diversification efforts, product manufacturing is no longer the top industrial classification of employment in the current labor shed. It ranks third behind health care/social services and education, which are first and second with 18.1 and 17.0 percent of those employed, respectively. Other interesting quick facts on the labor shed: 10.6 percent of workers have multiple jobs; the average worker is 42 years of age; and an estimated 5.3 percent are underemployed. Rockwell Collins, Inc., which focuses on electronic equipment and design, continues to be the largest employer with 8,700 full-time equivalent workers in 2011.

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Joliet Profile

Posted on November 14, 2011 by Susan Longworth

The purpose of the Community Development and Policy Studies’ Industrial Cities Project is to develop comprehensive community profiles of cities throughout the Federal Reserve’s 7th District that had populations of at least 50,000 and had 25% or more of their employment in manufacturing in 1960. The ten cities that will be profiled for this project were taken from a larger list of 54 and were selected based on a series of regression analyses to control for the effect of manufacturing decline on community well-being. Research includes in-depth qualitative information, combined with the best available quantitative analyses of the trends and issues impacting these communities to identify policies and programs that promote (or inhibit) economic growth and vitality in industrial cities.

This is the second in a series of blogs presenting initial findings and themes from the Industrial Cities Project and profiles Joliet, Illinois. Watch for the next installment in this series which will feature Cedar Rapids, Iowa.

Why was Joliet chosen for the ICI study?

In 1960, more than a third of Joliet’s population was employed in the manufacturing sector, with companies like U.S. Steel, Texaco and Caterpillar creating numerous jobs. Beginning in the late 1970s, Joliet began to see a decline in its manufacturing base and by 1983 had the dubious distinction of having the highest unemployment in the nation.[1]

Since the recession in the 1980s, Joliet has worked hard to diversify its employment base. Today, 70% of jobs are spread across seven industries, with two – Healthcare and Social Assistance and Retail Trade – comprising more than 35% of all jobs.[2] Joliet’s largest employers include hospitals and casinos, as well as heavy machinery manufacturer, Caterpillar.

Job growth through 2021 is projected to follow demographic patterns of growth and aging. Occupation data shows that jobs in the health care sector are projected to grow by more than 15%. Jobs for teachers and other education-related professions are on a similar trajectory. Material moving occupations also show strong growth projections, as do jobs in the retail and entertainment sectors.[3]

Some Background

Joliet, Illinois is located approximately 40 miles southwest of the City of Chicago, framed by the I-335 expressway to the east, I-55 expressway to the west, and I-80 expressway to the south. It is part of the Chicago-Joliet-Naperville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). The Des Plaines River runs through Joliet, as do several commuter and freight rail lines.[4] [5]

Joliet is the county seat of Will County, Illinois and remains an industrial city with 15% of its employment focused in either the creation or movement of goods.[6] It hosts two casinos, a Frontier League baseball team, the Route 66 Raceway (now the Chicagoland Speedway) and the historic Rialto Square Theatre. For decades it was known for the Joliet Correctional Center featured in movies and songs and now closed, since 2002.

Joliet is also home to the Joliet Centerpoint Intermodal Center, covering 3,600 acres with almost 20 million square feet of industrial facilities, as well as container/equipment management yards. A ‘sister’ intermodal is located in Elwood, Illinois, two miles to the south. Together, these two centers create one of the largest inland ports in the nation.[7]

Joliet’s population is 147,433, an increase of 39% since 2000, making it the fourth largest city in Illinois. Over the past decade the city has become poorer, with poverty levels increasing from 10.8% to 16.1% and more diverse with a 10% increase in the Hispanic population, which now comprises more than 25% of the total population.[8]

Looking to the Future: Assets and Challenges

While local leaders speak with pride of Joliet as the source of limestone for the Chicago WaterTower built in 1869, the reach of the city now extends far beyond the metropolitan region. Because of its sustainable assets – the rail lines, the expressways, and waterways, as well as proximity to two international airports – Joliet has a firm foothold in the global supply chain as a leading inland port.

However, challenges remain. Joliet has struggled to balance its municipal budget. With casino and other revenue on the decline, the city faced a $27 million deficit going into 2012 budget sessions. Various proposed budgets have privatized crossing guards, eliminated mosquito spraying and threatened to cut subsidies to area cultural institutions. Because Joliet is a heavily unionized city, municipal leaders must resolve the dilemma of managing the costs of pensions coveted by many constituents.[9] As a result, while Joliet’s future is firmly linked to the global economy, legacy issues close to home still influence politics and priorities.

[1] Will County Center for Economic Development: CED History and Impact: www.willcountyced.com (2011)
[2] Will County Workforce Investment Board, Local Employment Dynamics (2011)
[3] Will County Workforce Investment Board, Occupation Report: 2011-2021 (2011)
[4] Will County Department of Highways General Highway Map (2008)
[5] Chicago Rail Junctions – Joliet: http://www.dhke.com/CRJ/joliet.html (2011)
[6] Will County Workforce Investment Board, Occupation Report: 2001-2011 (2011)
[7] Centerpoint Intermodal Center, Joliet, IL: ( www.Centerpoint-prop.com/projects/ ) (2011)
[8] U.S. Census (2000 and 2010 ACS)
[9] City of Joliet 2012 Proposed Budget: http://www.cityofjoliet.info/documents/2012CityofJolietProposedBudget.pdf (October 2011)

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Aurora Profile

Posted on November 2, 2011 by Emily Engel

To learn more about the Community Development and Policy Studies (CDPS) Industrial Cities Initiative (ICI), please read our first blog.

Why was Aurora chosen for the ICI study? Aurora, Illinois was historically a manufacturing hub, and met the criteria explained in the last ICI blog based on its past manufacturing job base, and changes in population, income, employment over several decades.  Aurora in the 1960s was a vibrant manufacturing center due to its proximity to rail (freight) lines. Since that time, Aurora’s population has grown significantly, mostly due to immigration. 

What does the data tell us about Aurora? According to Census data and estimates from the American Community Survey (an ongoing survey conducted by the Census Bureau, as opposed to the more commonly known decennial survey), the population in Aurora grew 140% between 1970 and 2009. The Hispanic and Black populations grew disproportionately from 2000; by 2009 the Hispanic population representing almost 40% of the total population and Blacks representing over 11% of the total population in 2009.  Another notable data point is the percentage of families below the poverty line, which increased from 3.6% in 1970 to 9.4% in 2009. Future blogs will explore the connection, to the extent there is a connection, between this demographic change and the percentage of the population that is living below the poverty line.   

Some preliminary findings from interviews in Aurora: While we do not have a hard and fast list of questions, each interview touches on a few main topics: (1) retooling the workforce; (2) immigration; (3) decreasing crime; and (4) revitalizing the downtown.  

Located in the city is Valley Industrial Association, which works with Aurora manufacturing companies to provide services related to training, seminars, and hiring.  Aurora also has a high-quality community college: Waubonsee Community College devotes significant resources to retraining the unemployed or underemployed. Waubonsee also offers workforce development and training programs for companies, and has outreach at places like the Hesed House, a multi-service resource center, whose overall mission includes assisting homeless individuals in learning new skills and finding employment, among other services for the homeless. 

The Burlington and Quincy railroad located in Aurora in the 1850s and was the town’s largest employer for decades drawing new job-seeking residents to Aurora.  Our contacts noted that many people came to Aurora during the railroad boom when there were plentiful jobs.   The railroad drove economic and population growth until many of the railroad shops closed in the 1970s.  After these closures, the railroad ceased to be the main source of economic growth and employment.  

Even after these opportunities started to dwindle, the Hispanic population continued to grow in Aurora, as new immigrants joined family and friends in the area. With the large influx of Spanish-speaking Central and South American immigrants (primarily) there is great need for additional English literacy education – often referred to as “English as a second language” or ESL training.  Waubonsee and other organizations like the Dominican Literacy Center are key ESL training resources.

Data from the police department indicates that in 1978 there were 76,000 people in Aurora and 4,200 acts of reported crimes. The most recent reading is a population of almost 200,000 and 4,400 acts of reported crime.  While the number of acts of reported crimes are up, the population has almost tripled (i.e., crime per capita has dropped rapidly).  Aurora has combated crime with multiple tactics such as sweeps of open air “drug markets,” undercover police officers patrolling neighborhoods, and community policing.  All of these have helped decrease the crime in the area.

With the decrease in crime and the larger population, Aurora is also trying to revitalize its downtown, with mixed results and perceptions among residents. Some still associate downtown with danger while others want the “Old Aurora” back.  Still others advocate spending the revitalization funds in the surrounding areas.  What will happen to the downtown area remains to be seen, but the city has an aggressive plan.

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Industrial Cities Initiative (ICI)

Posted on October 18, 2011 by Emily Engel

Welcome to the Community Development and Policy Studies (CDPS) blog about the Industrial Cities Initiative (ICI) project.  The ICI will culminate in a symposium where we will present our findings on February 28, 2012.  Our team will blog about the progress of the project until the event.  Our last blog (on ICI) will be a recap of the symposium and an update on when the Federal Reserve publication will be finalized.

What is this ICI project? The (CDPS) group at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago is researching ten cities in its district (most of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, and all of Iowa) that were manufacturing hubs in the 1960s. For purposes of this project, a manufacturing hub means a city that in 1960 had a population of at least 50,000 people and 25% or more of its employment in manufacturing.  Fifty-four cities in District 7 fit those criteria.  We then used statistical regression analyses to isolate cities with unexpectedly high and low levels of ‘well being’, holding constant their respective declines in manufacturing as a share of overall economic activity. CDPS based ‘well-being’ on three criteria: (1) change in population; (2) change in employment; and (3) change in median family income. 

In CDPS, as we explore issues impacting our region, and to add some dimension and depth to what we learn through data analysis, we often conduct personal interviews with key individuals who can help us sort through actual conditions on the ground. Accordingly, CDPS has engaged in in-depth interviews with individuals in the following 10 cities in an effort to develop more comprehensive community profiles: Cedar Rapids, IA; Waterloo, IA; Aurora, IL; Joliet, IL; Fort Wayne, IN; Gary, IN; Grand Rapids, MI; Pontiac, MI; Green Bay, WI; and Racine, WI.

What is the next blog on? The next blog will discuss Aurora and some of the cities findings.  We would appreciate your feedback and comments if you know the Aurora area well.

What is next for the project?There will be a symposium to discuss the findings related to the 10 cities.  Shortly thereafter, we will publish a Chicago Fed Letter summarizing the symposium proceedings and, subsequently, an in-depth Profitwise News and Views article detailing the case studies and findings of the initiative.  Looking ahead, CDPS plans to investigate more cities in the 7th District facing the loss of manufacturing jobs and other impacts of globalization.

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